Another record hot day is ahead of us for Wednesday but this will the last for awhile as we have the first in a series of fronts and developing wave that will be impacting the area. The first push will come this evening with an approaching cold front.There should be some showers and thunderstorms around however I do not expect this lead area to cause widespread activity so hopefully all will see something but don’t be surprised if you miss out on the first round.
The main area will be coming for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the front stalls and a wave develops on the front. Rainfall forecast maps from the New York City weather service and the Weather Prediction Center are below and they automatcially update. Let’s hope the numbers work out. In this dry pattern we have seen few chances for widespread rain in the last few months and when they have happened reality has under performed the model forecasts. Such is the case in dry patterns. One of these will have to outperform but it is still in prove it to me mode.
Let’s hope the nam is correct with its view of things Thursday night showing very heavy rain across the area. The model develops a nice wave with ample moisture and a decent shortwave trough aloft enhancing the rain.
With regards to any severe weather, no widespread severe weather is forecast by the Storm Prediction Center though some individual cells could become strong tomorrow evening. By strong we hope they produce some heavy downpours. We may have to wait until later Thursday for the wave to get things going. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. The GFS yesterday pointed to at least another shot for rain late Saturday into early Sunday and perhaps another Monday night into Tuesday though at this point that could be a long shot. We will examine the models later this morning for more clues on how much rain we will get. We need to break this drought.
Nam model total rain more bullish on the overnight run then on past runs. This is a good sign.