Afternoon satellite pics and other data pretty much confirm what we saw beginning Friday night that Danny was weakening and it is weakening faster than forecast. The sheering and dry air is just too much for this tropical storm to survive through and my suspicion is this will be downgraded further overnight.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast weakening and why not?
Look at the loop across the Atlantic and 3 things really stand out. First off in the along and south of 20N you have Danny and the disturbance behind it that looks like it is getting organized. In the Central Atlantic you have not 1 but 2 strong upper lows and these are signature upper lows you see in El Nino years. Now look at the eastern Caribbean. Clouds are blowing from south to north. Those are strong upper level winds blowing those clouds and the wind sheer environment is not going anywhere. If you view the alley way in between it is hard to imagine how Danny will survive at all and it could be all but gone before late tomorrow at the rate it keeps weakening.
The water vapor loop shows this even better. Look at the train of upper lows across the middle of the Atlantic. Could the environment be any more hostile? If that doesn’t change the system behind Danny could wind up developing until it hits that sheer and then wind up with the same fate.