nhcprog

HURRICANE DANNY WEAKENS TO 100 MPH, EAST COAST OCEAN LOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

…DANNY WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.2N 50.8W
ABOUT 740 MI…1195 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

Hurricane Danny weekend a little more overnight based on the satellite though the weakening may have paused a bit judging but the lastest loop. Dry air and shear remain an obstacle for the hurricane and as it continues to move west northwest, the environment becomes more hostile. Many models weaken Danny to a remnant low and trough down the road but this remains to be seen. My experience has seen these things error in both directions so we want to be cautious regarding weakening too fast. The Hurricane Center follows the course of least regret which is to weaken it ot a tropical storm

nhcprog

It is probably getting close to the point where some sort of watches may go up for the Leeward Islands later today or tonight. Nothing in the upper air pattern suggests that Danny is a threat to the northeast down the road, if Danny survives.

 

We are still watching a low in the ocean off the east coast which is developing under a cold upper air structure. This system has not shown any signs yet of developing into a subtropical or tropical system though it still has time to do so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/ft-animated.gif

The surface low is forecast to move northwest and stay offshore regardless of tropical development. However clouds and showers will be thrown back into the coast on Sunday. Check the latest on this by clicking the forecast tab and then clicking on your zone.