To be honest for the last several months the thunderstorm activity has not exactly been substantial. Yes there have been several severe episodes but there really hasn’t been that many of them and there have been fewer widespread events. Im thinking that perhaps we could be seeing a good chance for some widespread activity with the next cold front coming on Tuesday.

This time around we have a fairly decent trough at 500 mb that looks to come through here. It isn’t the best looking of troughs i grant you but there might be enough dynamics around and a decent inflow of tropical air that we could see a few decent downpours. Given the dry conditions we have I dont think there will be many complaints.

Granted the total precip map isn’t exactly astounding either but if we can wind up with an inch plus of rain in places that haven’t seen much in the last few months, then I will certainly be happy with this and so will my lawn

Given the kind of spring and summer we have had, the forecast angle that has worked has been to pull back because everything has underperformed for the most part. I don’t argue with any forecaster who takes the same angle this time since it has worked so far. One of these times it won’t and maybe this is time.