All models have the system along the east coast weak and relatively unphased and that is the route we are taking in the forecast. The European seems to be very over zealous lately and is underperforming the gfs for a number of weeks. The gfs was the first model to back away from any precip for the weekend and the other models gradually caved.
The closest any rain gets would be skimming southernmost New Jersey and that should just about do it. There is some lead moisture coming in tonight as evidenced on the radar but it is likely that much of that should dry out as it heads north but there will be plenty of clouds around tonight into Friday morning. Overnight the northern fringe of the clouds should begin to sag southward after midnight. Frday looks okay with clouds and some sunshine and a wind off the ocean. Inland highs will be in the lower 80s..coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s…and where clouds are stubborn temps will stay in the 70s. Northern and Western areas from the Hudson Valley through Northwest New Jersey and into Northeast Pennsylvania should see a fair amount of sunshine on Friday.
Once the low pulls east we should see sunshine on Sunday but the wave offshore will set up a cool north flow so temps will probably make it back to 80 or at most low 80s.
The next chance of thunderstorms with the next cold front is likely to come late Monday as a warm front approaches and then perhaps during Tuesday before the front passes. The European shows a lot of rain with this front but given its recent performance record we will take that with a grain of salt.